Hillary's Support Is Going To Wilt In the Next 39 Days

Pro-Obama folks are frustrated that Hillary goes on despite the math.  The MSM seems to buy the fact that things are up in the air and that Hillary can come back.  On myDD, I recently saw a claim that Hillary was neck and neck with Obama in both the pledged delegate race.

Why does this disconnect exist?  How can Hillary so confuse the MSM?  

The answer is simple: the unsettled state of Michigan and Florida.  But that cloud over delegate math is disappearing and Hillary will suffer as a result in the next 39 days before the PA vote.  

Hillary is Using Michigan and Florida to Cloud the Math For Her Supporters

We learned today that there is a deal for a revote in Michigan.  And talks go on about Florida.  I expect some kind of settlement about Florida will happen in the next week.  Then what?  Then, I argue Hillary will slowly start to wilt.

A great point was made in Tapped that Hillary wants confusion about Michigan and Florida because it clouds how far she is really behind to her supporters.  With these two contests, she can claim two more big states that she won, about 700,000 margin in the popular vote, and a net of 118 delegates.  On myDD, using this net of 118 pledged delegates she is 21 pledged delegates ahead of Obama.

Now, the MSM media has caught on that Hillary is really behind in pledged delegates and does not add in Michigan and Florida delegates, but I would venture that many of her supporters have not.  While the consensus maybe that the credential committee will never seat Michigan and Florida as is, Hillary can at least claim those delegations "as is" without a deal.  And her followers can believe her claims.

Now, if the deal goes down in Michigan, she loses 355,000 of her popular vote margin and 80 net delegates.  Even on myDD, they will have to show that she is behind.  (For a sense of how big net 80 delegates is: Hillary won California with a net 36 in a total pledged delegation of 370.  Michigan's pledged delegates is just 128)

Bill Nelson is suggesting a deal where the delegate block for Florida is cut in half, so Hillary's net 38 in Florida, will go to net 19.  

If the Nelson deal is accepted and Michigan goes forward, Hillary's supports can no longer claim a net 118 delegates that should be seated in her favor.  With the Nelson deal, she gains a net 19, but that is nothing compared to the net 118 delegates that she is claiming now.  That is a loss of a net 99 delegates.  And Obama would still have a lead of about 140 delegates.

Hillary's Staying Power In This Race Is Depending On The Belief Of Her Supporters That The Math Is There For Her To Win Pledged Delegates

If you support Obama, you never counted the net 118 delegates for Hillary so a settlement--espeically one that nets Hillary 19 delegates seems unfavorable at worst or a non-event at best.  What Obama supporters think is not important.  What is important is what the MSM will think ahd how Hillary's supporters react.  In fact, a Michigan and Florida settlement will cause Hillary's support to wilt over time.

If you support Hillary, you hang on to the hope (funny that a Hillraiser can have hope) that she can somehow manage to get Florida and Michigan seated "as is."  So, that hope gives her a path to win pledged delegates.  And so you can be pro-Hillary and pro-democracy.

Once that path is closed with a settlement, you have to push for overturning the popular will.  Some of Hillary's supporters will balk at that, realize that she has lost and will back Obama, or at the very least stop giving money to Hillary.  HIllary, of course, will not drop out, and Penn will continue his absurd emails to the press, but her fundraising will slow and I think you will see her poll numbers ebb.

In short, once Michigan and Florida settle, the delegate math will start having an effect on her staying power.  The cloud over delegate math will be gone and many of her supporters will start to understand how far Hillary is actually behind.

Her Support Could Wilt Considerable In the 39 Days Before PA Primary

39 days is a long time in politics.  Assuming Michigan and Florida settle out, a lot of things can happen in 39 days.  In 39 days, a significant number of Hillary supporters might realize that she cannot win the pledged delegates count.  In 39 days, a lot undecided might come to the conclusion that Hillary is going to lose and they do not want to vote for a loser.  In 39 days, a lot of big democrats, like Pelosi, can come out and say that the pledged delegate leader should win.  In 39 days, the narrative could be in the MSM that Hillary cannot win pledged delegates and there is a consensus among uncommitted Superdelegates that they should not overturn the winner of the pledged delegates race and therefore Obama's nomination is a matter of time.  In short, in 39 days, the rationale for Hillary to go on can collaspe.  And it all starts with a settlement of Michigan and Florida.  And it can all happen by April 22, 2008.

Time is not on Hillary's side; it is on Obama's.