Can Obama Sweep on March 4th?

Just a few weeks ago, Obama was done more than 20 points in Ohio, 10 points in Texas and, a recent poll has him down 12 points in Rhode Island.  Yet, I think Obama has a real chance at sweeping on March 4th

A day in politics is a lifetime.  Today, Sunday, February 24, is 9 days before March 4th.  That is a lot of lifetimes.  Enough time in fact for Obama to sweep to victory in all four states on March 4th, even though he is behind in three of the four states.   I think there are four factors that could result in a sweep:

1.  If you read the press reports, the spirit of the Clinton camp is broken.  The Sunday edition of the New York Times has story entitled Somber Clinton Soldiers On A Horizon Darkens.  This story recounts very low morale in the Clinton camp:

Morale is low. After 13 months of dawn-to-dark seven-day weeks, the staff is exhausted. Some have taken to going home early — 9 p.m. — turning off their BlackBerrys, and polishing off bottles of wine, several senior staff members said.

                             *   *   *

Others have taken several days off, despite it being crunch time. Some have grown depressed, be it over Mr. Obama’s momentum, the attacks on the campaign’s management from outside critics or their view that the news media has been much rougher on Mrs. Clinton than on Mr. Obama.

It is hard to win when people are just doing their jobs like Zombies, but it is hard to have real zeal and passion when the end is near.  Clinton's GOTV, which was never first class will certainly suffer.

2.   The polls are trending Obama.  From more than 20 points down in Ohio three weeks ago, to just 8 points back.   Texas is now a dead heat according to an AP/Washington Post poll.  Obama has a 26 point lead in Vermont.  

3.  Obama has a huge financial edge.  Using that financial edge, Obama has already made larger ad buys then Clinton.  While it would seem unlikely that Obama could outspead Clinton 5 to 1 as he did in Wisconsin, there is no reason to believe that Obama will not have significantly more ads up in Texas and Ohio.

4. The narrative that it is over for Clinton will get louder as we approach March 4th.  The day after Wisconsin, the press talked about the loss as big blow, but did not say it was a fatal one.  However, the press was quick to interpret Hillary's final remarks at the debate as her acknowledging looming defeat.  Frank Rich has written a very critical review of Clinton's campaign that makes clear that he thinks that Clinton is already toast.  Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a prominent Clinton supporter, has recently said that Obama will get the nomination and Clinton is done.  Look for Clinton to get hammered on the today's talk shows and a few talking heads will say that she is done.

       I think the drum beat that Clinton is done will only increase over the next nine days.   And I think Clinton will get a few discouraging polls in the next week.  Once rank and file democrats gets the sense that Clinton is done and beyond all hope, a far number will rally around Obama--not because he is their first choice, but to strengthen him against McCain in November.      

       Of course, Obama has nine days to say something stupid or commit a blunder.  But that seems very unlikely, he has outsmarted, outworked, outfundraised, and outcampaigned Hillary so far, there is no reason to think things will change.

       In the end, I see Obama winning a devasting sweep that causes to Clinton to announce the suspension of her campaign from her election night rally.